Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
