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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still